Oliver's Insights – The US presidential election - implications for investors and Australia

The US presidential election – implications for investors and Australia

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Oliver's Insights – The next move in the RBA cash rate likely remains down later this year

This year has seen a bit of a rollercoaster ride in interest rates expectations. This article looks at the outlook for the RBA’s cash rate.

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Oliver's Insights – Seasonal patterns in shares - should we "sell in May and go away"?

This article looks at seasonal patterns in shares and whether its time to “sell in May and go away” along the lines of the old share market saying.

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Oliver's Insights – Israel/Iran fears and rate cut uncertainty - shares are vulnerable to a bout of volatility but here's five reasons why the trend will likely remain up

The obvious issue is how vulnerable are shares? Could the bull market that got under way from the inflation and interest rate lows of 2022 (that has seen global shares rise 42% and Australian shares rise 23%) be over?

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Oliver's Insights – Seven things you need to know about the Australian property market

The Australian housing market has started the year on a solid note with national home prices up 1.6% over the first three months according to CoreLogic. We had thought the drag of high mortgage rates would get the upper hand again but the supply shortfall is continuing to dominate.

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Oliver's Insights – Seven lasting impacts from the covid pandemic

It’s four years since the COVID lockdowns started. The pandemic ended when it morphed into the less deadly Omicron variant in late 2021, but just as a sound can reverberate around a room the effects of the pandemic continue to reverberate in economies.

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Oliver's Insights - Bitcoin to infinity and beyond... again!

Bitcoin attracts extreme views - evangelists on the one hand and agnostics and atheists on the other in contrast to other things where the debate is between bulls and bears. This note looks at what it means for investors.

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Oliver's insights - 21 great investment quotes

Investing can be scary and confusing at times. But the basic principles of successful investing are timeless and quotes from experts help illuminate these.

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Oliver's Insights - Seven key charts for investors to watch – where are they now?

Seven key charts worth keeping an eye on are: global business conditions PMIs; inflation; unemployment and underemployment; inflation expectations; earnings revisions; the gap between earnings yields and bond yields; and the US dollar.

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Oliver's Insights - Investment outlook Q&A – recession risks, rates and inflation, geopolitics, the US election and Swiftonomics

Last year shares climbed a “wall of worry” as inflation fell leading to prospects for lower interest rates ahead. But can it continue? After participating in a webinar on the investment outlook this note takes a look at the main questions investors have in a simple Q&A format.

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Oliver's Insights - Five problems with the Australian tax system – and the furore over changes to Stage 3 tax cuts

The Australian tax system has five key problems: it’s heavily reliant on income tax; it’s complicated by numerous tax concessions; it’s highly progressive; it has ongoing problems with “bracket creep”; & suffers from several anachronisms.

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Oliver's Insights - Falling inflation – what does it mean for investors?

The surge in inflation coming out of the pandemic and its subsequent fall has been the dominant driver of investment markets over the last two years – first depressing shares and bonds in 2022 and then enabling them to rebound.

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Oliver's Insights - 2024 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

Despite lots of angst at the start of the year, 2023 turned out far better than feared. Dr Shane Oliver reflects on key themes from the past year and suggests what investors should look out for in 2024

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Oliver's insights - 2023 saw the return of Goldilocks, but what’s in store for 2024 for investors?

The five key themes for 2023 were: better than feared growth; disinflation; peak interest rates (probably in Australia too); lots of geopolitical threats but not as bad as feared; and AI hit the big time. This boosted shares and helped bonds with solid superannuation fund returns.

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Oliver's insights - The RBA leaves rates on hold

The decision by the RBA to leave rates on hold at its December meeting and whether we have reached the top or not. At its December meeting the RBA left rates on hold but retained a tightening bias with still relatively hawkish commentary.

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Oliver's insights - Australian dollar

Five reasons to expect the Australian dollar to rise into next year: it’s undervalued; short term interest rate differentials look likely to shift in favour of Australia; sentiment towards the $A is negative; commodities still look to have entered a new super cycle; and Australia has a solid current account surplus.

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Oliver's insights - nine key things for successful investing

Successful investing is not always easy and can be stressful. Even in good times. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things in mind.

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Oliver's insights - Australian housing market

Australian home prices rose again in October, with the supply shortfall on the back of record immigration dominating. While this is likely to continue, there is a high risk that the impact of high interest rates will start to get the upper hand next year particularly if the RBA hikes again and unemployment rises by more than expected.

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Oliver's insights - medium term returns

Five megatrends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures & lower economic growth than pre-pandemic.

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Oliver's insights - oil and petrol prices

The war in Israel is terrible from a humanitarian perspective. From an economic and investment perspective the concern is that it will lead to a surge in oil prices that will add to inflation, keep interest rates higher for longer and add to the risk of recession.

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Oliver's insights - 1987 vs now - rising bond yields (& war in Israel) and the risks for shares

This edition of Oliver's Insights looks at the impact of rising bond yields on shares, the risks flowing from the renewed conflict in Israel and comparisons to the run up to the 1987 share crash.

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Oliver's insights - How do valuations look now?

Starting point valuations – like yields and price to earnings ratios – are key drivers of medium-term investment returns.

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Oliver's Insights - Immigration and Housing

Dr Shane Oliver discusses the key drivers of poor housing affordability in Australia and particularly the role played by high immigration levels.

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Oliver's Insights – Has the RBA finished rate hikes?

While the risk in the short term is still on the upside for rates or a delay to the start of rate cuts, our base case is that rates will be on hold until early next year ahead of rate cuts starting in the March quarter.

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Oliver's Insights - Three reasons to err on the side of optimism as an investor

It seems that the worry list for investors has become more threatening and confusing. However, to succeed, it makes sense to err on the side of cautious optimism: otherwise, there is no point in investing; growth assets like shares have trended up over the long term; and trying to get the timing right of the 2 or 3 years out of 10 when they fall can be very hard.

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Oliver's Insights – China's slowdown and structural challenges and implications for Australia

This article looks at the current concerns about the Chinese economic outlook and how Australia can't rely on the China/commodity boom indefinitely.

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Oliver's Insights – Why the need to lift productivity and why it might be hard

This article takes a look at why boosting productivity growth matters and why it might be hard (beyond a return to normal after pandemic related distortions).

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Oliver's insights - goldilocks versus recession

Recession versus “goldilocks” – five reasons why we could still avoid recession

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Oliver's insights - leading and lagging indicators

This article takes a look at the currently confusing economic landscape with some indicators being very strong and others very weak.

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Oliver's insights - seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on

Seven key charts worth keeping an eye on remain: global business conditions PMIs; inflation and our Inflation Indicators; unemployment and underemployment; inflation expectations; earnings revisions; the gap between earnings yields and bond yields; and the US dollar.

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Oliver's Insights – 15 common sense tips to help manage your finances

Getting our personal finances right can be a challenge at times. And the surge in interest rates has arguably made it even harder for many. This article looks at some common-sense personal finance tips that may be of use.

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Oliver's Insights – 2022-23 saw investment returns rebound - but is it sustainable?

The past financial year saw a solid rebound in investment returns, after the negative returns of the 2021-22 financial year. This note reviews the past 12 months in investment markets and looks at the outlook.

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Oliver's Insights – Australian recession Q&A - Why the worry? What's the risk? And what would it mean for investors?

Recession has been a recurring theme over the last year or so but has intensified lately. But what's driving it? How serious is the risk of recession? And what would it mean for Australians and investors?

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Oliver's Insights – Sell in May and go away? The worry list for shares (and the good news!)

Dr Shane Oliver outlines the large worry list for shares; some positives that still exist; and the implications for investors

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Oliver's Insights - Peak Australian home ownership - rising prosperity (and smashed avocado) versus housing affordability

This note looks at the decline in Australia’s home ownership rate since the mid-1960s and what has driven it.

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Oliver's Insights - Commercial property returns under threat

Key to watch will be bond yields, whether the economy avoids recession and where “work from home” settles.

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What the Federal Budget means for our economy

Dr Shane Oliver and Deputy Chief Economist Diana Mousina explain what effects the Federal Budget could have on the Australian economy and investment markets.

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Oliver's Insights – Australian home prices

Australian home prices rose again in April & along with other indicators suggest the home price downturn is over, but we must now watch rates and unemployment

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Oliver's Insights – RBA Review – it’s not clear the proposed reforms will lead to a better outcome for the Australian economy

This article takes a look at the recommendations of the independent Reivew of the RBA and it’s not clear the proposed reforms will lead to a better outcome for the Australian economy.

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Oliver's Insights - Investment outlook Q&A

inflation, interest rates and other issues

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Oliver's insights - Five charts on investing to keep in mind in rough times like now

Five charts focusing on critical aspects of investing that are insightful in times of market stress

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Oliver's insights - have Australian home prices bottomed? Probably not.

Dr Shane Oliver looks at the outlook for Australian property prices, particuarly given the bounce in prices over the last month or so.

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Oliver's insights - Shares hit another bout of turbulence

US banks, inflation, interest rates and recession risk - what it means for investors?

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Oliver's insights - charts to watch

Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on are: global business conditions PMIs; inflation; unemployment & underemployment; longer term inflatione expectations; gap between earnings & bond yields; & the US dollar

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Oliver's insights - the RBA hikes rates

The RBA hiked again by 0.25% taking the cash rate to 3.35%. It continues to expect to increase interest rates further.

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Australian v global shares - AMP

Dr Shane Oliver explains seven reasons why Australian shares are likely to outperform global shares over the medium term

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Macro investment outlook for 2023 - AMP

2022 was dominated by high inflation, rising interest rates, war in Ukraine & recession fears. This hit bonds & shares hard, driving losses for balanced growth super funds.

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Oliver's insights - 2022 review & 2023 outlook

The article reviews the key developments of 2022 of relevance for investors and their impact on investment markets, and takes a look at the outlook for 2023.

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Home price slump continued in November - AMP

The home price slump continued in November, with still more to go

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Five medium term inflation pressures & implications for investors

The surge in inflation should start to reverse next year

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Shares may have bottomed

At last, it seems some of the bad news for shares appears to be abating. It’s certainly been a rough year.

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Seven reasons why Australia should be able to avoid a recession

Economic and financial commentary has been particularly gloomy of late, with talk of a “dire”, “grim”, “bleak”, “perilous” and “confronting” outlook.

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The October 2022-23 Australian Budget – balancing a revenue windfall, election promises, structural spending demands & inflation pressures

The Government has implemented its election policies and expects lower budget deficits this year and next thanks to another revenue windfall and various savings.

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Seven things for investors to keep in mind in rough times like these

Successful investing can be really hard in times like the present. Falls in share markets and other assets are stressful as no one likesto see their wealth decline and the natural inclination is to retreat to safety.

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The perils of forecasting in investing - three things for investors to consider

The latest client note by Howard Marks, the co-founder and co-chair of Oaktree Capital, an alternative investment manager focussing on distressed debt, on The Illusion of Knowledge about the futility of forecasting to drive investment decisions, inspired me to revisit what I had already written on this subject.

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The RBA hikes rates by 0.25%. Here are five reasons why the RBA was right to slowdown and the top is near

The RBA has increased its cash rate again but slowed the pace to +0.25% which took the cash rate to 2.6%....

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Shares sliding again - what’s driving it and is there any light at the end of the tunnel?

Investors could be forgiven for looking back on the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021 with fond memories – because after the initial shock in February-March 2020 it was a period of strong returns and relative calm in investment markets.

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Australia’s productivity challenge - why it matters and what to do about it

The last twenty years have seen a sharp slowdown in productivity growth in Australia

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Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on in assessing the investment outlook

Shares remain vulnerable in the short term. They had a nice rebound from ..

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Home price falls accelerated in August – three reasons why this property downturn will likely be different

“This time is different” have been described as the four most dangerous words in investing by Sir John Templeton. But there is good reason to believe this Australian home price downturn cycle will be different...

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Booms, busts and investor psychology – why investors need to be aware of the psychology of investing

Investment markets are driven by more than just fundamentals. Investor psychology plays a huge role and helps explain why asset prices go through periodic booms and busts...

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Investment cycles – why investors need to be aware and wary of them

Cycles are part of life. Whether it be the cycle of day and night, seasons, tides, weather cycles from the almost weekly cycles of cold fronts that regularly blow across southeast Australia...

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Five reasons why the RBA cash rate is likely to peak (or should peak) with a 2 in front of it rather than a 3 (or more)

As widely expected, the RBA has increased the cash rate again by 0.5% taking it to 1.85%.

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The good news in the plunge in markets – higher medium-term return potential (assuming inflation is tamed)

The start of this year has been painful for investors with sharp losses in shares and bonds, dragging most superannuation funds into negative returns for the last financial year...

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Inflation in the 70s – baby boomer fantasy or nightmare? Why central banks must focus on getting inflation back down

I grew up in the 1970s and it was fun – Abba, Elvis, Wings, JPY, flares, cool cars, etc. But economically it was a mess.

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2021-22 saw poor investment returns – the bad news and the good

The past financial year was poor for investors as inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears hit investment markets.

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Australia’s Achilles’ heel - high household debt and rising interest rates

Australian household debt has risen dramatically since the 1980s and is high compared to other countries.

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The plunge in shares & flow on to super - key things for investors to keep in mind during times of market turmoil

Share markets have fallen sharply in recent weeks continuing the plunge that started early this year due to worries about inflation, monetary tightening, recession & geopolitical issues including the invasion of Ukraine.

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The RBA hikes rates again with more to go - but falling confidence and home prices will limit RBA tightening

The RBA has hiked the cash rate again - by 0.5% taking it to 0.85% and continues to signal more rate hikes ahead.

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National property prices fall for the first time since the pandemic - expect a 10-15% top to bottom fall

Australian home prices fell 0.1% in May, their first decline since the pandemic.

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Australia’s new Government - what does it mean for investors

The ALP won the election and is set to Govern most likely in its in own right or as a minority government.

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The falls in share markets this year - the bad news and the good

Last year saw very strong investment returns and was relatively calm in investment markets.

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Another five great charts on investing that are very useful in times of uncertainty like the present

Successful investing can be really difficult in times of uncertainty like now making it important to stay.

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The RBA starts raising rates - how far and how fast? And what does it mean for investors?

For the first time since November 2010, the RBA has raised its official cash rate - from 0.1% taking it to 0.35%.

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How can we transition to renewable energy?

Accessing green energy isn’t only for the wealthy. Companies like Evergen are making it more affordable for everyone. We talk to Ben Hutt, CEO & Managing Director for Evergen and Bopha Ly, Managing Director, Energy for AMP Capital’s Infrastructure Equity business to get their perspective.

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Can infrastructure protect from inflation?

As inflation returns to the global economy, can holding infrastructure assets protect a portfolio from rising prices? We explore.

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Jobs and inflation to trigger higher rates?

The very strong employment market is putting pressure on the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates. Our Senior Economist dives deeper.

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The 2022 Australian Federal election and investors

Australian election campaigns tend to result in a period of uncertainty which have seen weak gains on average for shares followed by a bounce once it’s out of the way.

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Australian housing slowdown Q&A - What impact will higher interest rates have? How far will prices fall?

National average property prices are likely to peak around mid-year and then enter a cyclical downswing. After 22% growth in national average home prices last year, average home price growth this year is expected to be around 1% and we expect a 5-10% decline in average prices in 2023.

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Five great charts on investing that are particularly useful in times of uncertainty like the present

Investing is often seen as complicated. This has been made worse over the years by: the increasing complexity in terms of investment products and choices; regulations and rules around investing; the role of the information revolution and social media in amplifying the noise around investment markets...

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Budget targeted at increases in the cost of living

The Budget delivered no surprises when it came to super. There were two measures which had a direct impact and each of them had been released previously, one only in the past few days. Graeme Colley explains further.

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Federal Budget video round-up

In this short video, AMP Senior Economist Diana Mousina gives a round-up of the key outcomes from last night’s 2022-23 Federal Budget proposals and explains what effect they could have on the Australian economy.

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Budget outlook for commercial real estate

The 2022-23 Budget supports investment in premium real estate assets with high-quality leasing covenants that can deliver optimal income returns through a period of volatility driven by higher interest rates.

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The 2022-23 Australian Budget - a “magic election pudding” of more spending and lower deficits

The 2022-23 Budget provides a “magic election pudding” of more spending but lower deficits. The additional spending relates mainly to this calendar year and given the strong economy is more motivated by politics than economics.

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The US Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates - implications for Australia and investors

After much anticipation, the US Federal Reserve has raised its Federal Funds target interest rate from a range of 0-0.25%, where it’s been for the last two years since the pandemic started, to the range of 0.25-0.5%.

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Another energy shock and the threat from higher petrol prices

World oil prices have spiked to their highest levels since 2008, rising more than 30% since the war in Ukraine started.

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Five big picture implications of the war in Ukraine of relevance for investors - and why are Australian shares holding up better?

Humans do horrible things to each other, and war is the worst example of that. What was first announced by Russia earlier last week as a “peacekeeping” force ...

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5 Key trends set to drive real estate performance

While the extent of the local and global economic recovery post COVID-19 is unclear, there are still opportunities for investors able to capitalise on key trends that we believe will drive the performance of commercial real estate in 2022.

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US faces stiff headwinds in 2022

What happens to interest rates is always important for investors, but particularly so at turning points in the economy. Our Senior Economist discusses why.

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What's the market outlook for 2022?

Despite the rough and uncertain start to the year there is reason to be optimistic about the share market in 2022.

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The escalation in Ukraine tensions - implications for investors

The last few days have seen a sharp escalation in the situation between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia recognising the independence of two regions in the Donbas area

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Investment outlook Q&A - inflation, interest rates, Russia & Ukraine, the risk of a share crash, house prices and other issues

This note covers the main questions investors commonly have regarding the investment outlook in a simple Q&A format.

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Corrections, gummy bears and grizzly bears in shares

While shares have had a nice rebound from their January lows helped in part by some good earnings news – reversing around half of their 10% or so fall, ...

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The RBA ends bond buying - but remains “patient” on rates.

Over the last six months several central banks have raised interest rates. This started in emerging markets but developed country central banks have also hiked rates...

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Share market falls - seven things for investors to keep in mind

Share markets have fallen in recent weeks on the back of worries about inflation, monetary tightening, the Omicron disruption and the rising risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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Inflation Q&A - how worried should investors be about higher inflation?

For last few decades inflation has not been much of an issue. It was all about economic activity. Books were even written about “the death of inflation”.

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2022 - a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

Despite a wall of worry with coronavirus and inflation, 2021 was a great year for diversified investors,

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Review of 2021, outlook for 2022 – recovery to continue as we hopefully learn to live with covid

Just as 2020 was dominated by coronavirus so too was 2021. But 2021 turned out to be a far better year for investors. The big negatives of 2021 were of course dominated by coronavirus...

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Opportunity beckons for retail sector

As far as real estate sectors go, retail has been the most challenged globally over the past 24 months. But for investors who are ready to look beyond the challenges, we take a look at why it's still an exciting investment and development proposition

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How inflation impacts real assets

With the global economy rapidly launching back into recovery mode and prices on the rise, real assets are uniquely positioned to help investors ride out the current inflationary surge.

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What’s next for the Australian and global economies? | AMP Capital

In our special outlook for 2022, we look at the tough choices investors face as global economic growth picks up.

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Five reasons to expect a cooling in the Australian property market and falling prices in 2023

Australian home prices have boomed this year. They are up 22.2% over the 12 months to November according to CoreLogic with Hobart (+28%), Sydney (+26%), Brisbane (+25%), Canberra (+25%) and regional prices (+25%) leading the charge.

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The longer-term legacy of coronavirus - nine implications of importance to investors

The magnitude of the coronavirus shock means it will have implications beyond those associated with its short-term economic disruption.

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The benefits of investing in real assets for retirement

A retirement portfolio’s allocation of growth and defensive assets traditionally depends on an investors’ risk profile.

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Infrastructure and the road to recovery

Post-COVID, what does the road to recovery for infrastructure look like? And what role does infrastructure play in a portfolio?

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How real estate will play a leading role in getting to net zero

Australia’s net zero debate could leave the impression that climate change is all about heavy manufacturing, regional towns and coal-fired power stations.

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Compound interest is like magic - and it’s an investor’s best friend

If there is one “technical thing” investors should know about investing, it’s the power of compound interest.

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Central banks - including the RBA and Fed – gradually removing monetary stimulus is more good news than bad

The march of central banks towards tighter monetary policy has stepped up over the last few months.

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Rising bond yields and the end of the super cycle bull market in bonds

It’s normal for bond yields to rise in economic recoveries but it’s looking increasingly likely that the nearly 40-year

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Science and medicine appear to be getting the upper hand of coronavirus - implications for investors

There are increasing signs that science and medicine are getting the upper hand against coronavirus: new global cases are in decline;

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Why is Australian housing so expensive and what can be done to improve housing affordability?

For as long as I can recall housing affordability has been an issue in Australia but since the 1990s it’s gone from being a periodic cyclical concern to a chronic problem.

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Oliver's Insights - 7 reasons to look beyond the gloom

Australian GDP slowed in the June quarter & will be hit hard by the lockdowns - but here’s 7 reasons to look beyond the gloom

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China’s growth slowdown and regulatory crackdown - what does it mean for China’s growth outlook?

After surging 65% from its coronavirus low in March 2020 to its high in February this year, the Chinese share market saw an 18% decline into July.

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Six reasons why shares are at or near record levels. But is it sustainable?

Despite lots of worries – around the resurgence of coronavirus driven by the Delta variant, peak growth, peak monetary and fiscal stimulus and high inflation

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Great investment quotes for topsy turvy times

The current environment seems to be one of extreme uncertainty. We have seen a strong economic recovery from last year’s global and Australian recessions

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Coronavirus continues to cause havoc globally and in Australia - but here are five reasons for optimism

It seems the bad news on coronavirus doesn’t let up. The lockdown in NSW looks like going longer.

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Seven key charts for investors to watch - where are they now?

In January for investors to watch as being critical to the investment outlook this year. Put simply, where are they now?

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Oliver's Insights - put the latest worry list in context

Five ways to turn down the noise and stay focused as an investor

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Oliver's Insights - 2020-21 saw investment returns rebound – expect more modest but still good returns this financial year

The past financial year saw a spectacular rebound in returns for investors as the focus shifted from the recession to recovery against a backdrop of policy stimulus and vaccines. This note reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the outlook.

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Oliver's Insights - The never-ending coronavirus pandemic – why snap lockdowns in Australia make sense until herd immunity is reached.

News that I and many others were effectively in lockdown from Friday was depressing. It got even more depressing when the whole of Sydney and surrounds was put into a two-week lockdown on Saturday.

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Oliver's Insights - Are central banks heading towards the easing exits

The drumbeat of central banks heading towards the exits from ultra-easy monetary policy is getting louder

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Oliver's Insights - Inflation – why it matters for investment markets

The shift from high inflation to low inflation has been a key tailwind for investment returns over the last 40 years – in particular it has allowed capital growth in excess of growth in earnings and rents

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Olivers Insights - Optimistic March quarter

The Australian economic recovery remained strong in the March quarter with GDP up 1.8% – seven reasons for optimism

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Oliver's Insights - Inflation Q&A – should we be worried about higher inflation?

Inflation will likely rise further in the months ahead due to base effects, bottlenecks & reopening but it’s likely to fall back again from later this year as these drivers fade.

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Big-spending Federal Budget set to spur on the recovery

The 2021 Federal Budget harks back to the immediate post GFC budgets in some ways, with the Treasurer resisting any temptation to start early on the task of budget repair and doubling down on stimulus.

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Olivers Insights - The 2021-22 Australian Budget – spending the growth windfall to further grow the economy towards full employment

The Government now expects the Federal budget deficit to peak at $161bn this financial year (down from $214bn in October’s Budget) and fall to $107bn in 2021-22.

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Oliver's Insights - The return of geopolitical risk? – what to watch over the remainder of 2021

Geopolitical risks are higher than prior to the GFC reflecting three big themes: a populist backlash against economic rationalist policies; the falling relative power of the US; and the polarising impact of social media.

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Olivers Insights - Three reasons why the long-term bull market in Australian house prices may be getting close to the end

The Australian housing market is booming. Prices are rising sharply, auction clearance rates are very strong, sales are surging, and housing finance is around record highs.

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Oliver's Insights - The importance of starting point valuations for investment returns – and where are we now?

It makes sense that the cheaper you buy an asset the higher its prospective return will be. However, this is frequently forgotten with investors often tempted to project recent returns into the future regardless of valuations.

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A new age of Infrastructure, Energy, and Investment is dawning

Articles and updates. A new age of infrastructure energy and investment is dawning Preparing for the post-COVID recovery in real estate, the bonds market and more...

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Oliver's Insights - Market outlook Q&A – global recovery, vaccines, inflation, the risk of a share crash, Aust house prices and other issues

Global recovery is on track. Vaccines are working. JobKeeper’s end won’t derail Australia’s recovery. Inflation could become an issue in the medium term. Shares are at risk of a correction but are supported by economic and earnings recovery.

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Oliver's Insights - RBA on hold and likely to remain easy for a long while yet

RBA on hold and likely to remain easy for a long while yet as full employment gets more of a look in. While the economy is recovering faster than expected. The RBA will likely start to slow its quantitative easing measures through this year though.

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Oliver's Insights - Shares have had a very strong rebound since March last year so where are we in the investment cycle?

The history of cyclical bull markets in shares suggests that the rebound since last March still has a way to go.

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Oliver's Insights - Bitcoin – it’s not a currency, it’s not a capital asset… so what is it?

Digital currencies and blockchain technology may have a lot to offer - but that does not mean Bitcoin will be it.

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Oliver's Insights -The bond crash of 2021? Seven things for investors to consider

The 40-year downtrend in inflation and bond yields is likely over. But the fundamental backdrop of improving growth, rising profits and still low rates supports the case for solid 6-12 month returns from shares

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Olivers Insights - Australian house prices on the upswing again – seven things to bear in mind about the Australian property market

Expect average Australian home prices to rise 5-10% this year and next as ultra-low interest rates and economic recovery feed through. However, the outlook is divergent...

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Six key things to know about super in 2021

The super rules change regularly, and this year is no exception.

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Oliver's Insights - Nine common mistakes investors make

Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong.

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Capital Edition Jan/Feb 2021

Will Airports ever be the same, Real estate rock stars, USA Game changing year and the face of front line responders

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Olivers Insights - Seven key charts for investors to watch regarding the global economy and investment markets this year.

Shares are at risk of a short-term correction or consolidation, but investment markets should provide solid returns this year on the back of continuing economic recovery and low interest rates.

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Oliver's Insights - Seven key charts for investors to watch regarding the global economy and investment markets this year

Our high-level investment view is that while shares are vulnerable to a short term correction having run up hard since early November, overall investment returns will be solid this year on the back of economic recovery (driven by stimulus and the deployment of vaccines allowing a more sustained reopening) at the same time that interest rates remain low.

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Oliver's Insights - US political protests, inflation and rising bond yields

US protests are only an issue for investment markets if they significantly impact economic activity

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Olivers Insights - 2021 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

2020 turned out far better for investors than was feared. 2021 is expected to provide solid returns & see a further rotation from pandemic winners to cyclical investments.

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Oliver's Insights - from pandemic to recovery

Review of 2020, not what it was supposed to be - Outlook for 2021 - Recovery

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Modern Monetary Theory – can it help with economic problems or is it just another Magic Money Tree?

For some years now Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has been gaining prominence as a solution to the perceived failure of traditional economic policies to achieve full employment & meet inflation targets, despite at or near zero interest rates.

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Olivers Insight's - Joe Biden on track to become US president. Implications for investors and Australia

The US election has been close and final counting as well as legal challenges could still upset the result, but the now highly likely outcome is a Biden Presidency.

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Olivers Insights - RBA cuts rates to just 0.1% and ramps up quantitative easing – but will it work?

The RBA has cut the cash rate to a record low 0.1% & announced a broad-based quantitative easing program.

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Expect slower medium-term returns

Despite a 35% or so plunge in share markets earlier this year; on the back of the pandemic and rough patches in 2018, 2015 and 2011, well diversified Australian investors have seen pretty good returns over the last 10 years. The median balanced growth superannuation fund returned 5.8% pa over the five years to August and 7.3% pa over 10 years and that’s after fees and taxes. While that’s dull compared to the double digit returns of the higher inflation world of the 1980s and 1990s, it’s pretty good once low inflation of 2% pa or less is allowed for.

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Federal Budget 2020-2021

The 2020-21 Australian Budget – spend, spend, spend as the focus remains on recovery and jobs, jobs, jobs

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Olivers Insight's Sep 22

Australia’s “eye popping” budget deficit and public debt blow out – can it be paid off? Does it matter?

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More action out of the RBA this month to support the economy | AMP Capital

In its September board meeting, we saw another move out of the RBA to support the Australian economy through COVID-19, and there could be more to come.

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RBA holds – but more stimulus likely as Victorian lockdown to knock at least $12bn from national GDP

Victoria’s tightening lockdown could knock at least $12bn off the Victorian and national economy and delay the return to positive Australian GDP growth to the December quarter.

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Oliver's Insights - The fiscal cliff is more likely to be a fiscal slope – and why concerns about Australia’s budget deficit are overblown

The thought of various government support measures expiring in the months ahead, causing some sort of fiscal cliff over which economies and share markets will plunge, has caused much consternation. But as with the original fiscal cliff of December 31, 2012 in the US, it’s likely to be tapered into a fiscal slope.

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Oliver's Insights - 2019-20 saw poor returns - but it could have been much worse

The past financial year was poor for investors as coronavirus knocked economies into what is likely to be their biggest hit since the 1930s. Shares were hit hard, but the blow was softened by a strong rebound in the June quarter. This note reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the outlook.

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Oliver's Insights - How worried should investors be about a “second wave” of coronavirus cases?

A serious second wave of coronavirus cases in major developed countries is the biggest risk facing equity markets, and one investors will need to watch closely.

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Oliver's Insights - Shares climb a “wall of worry” - but is it sustainable?

The strong rally in shares since their March lows reflects a combination of economic reopening, signs of recovery, policy stimulus and once pessimistic investors closing underweight or short positions.

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Oliver's Insights

Australian house prices starting to fall – collapse likely averted but expect more weakness ahead

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Oliver's Insights - 10 medium to longer-term implications from the Coronavirus shock

There has been much debate about the short-term economic and investment impact of coronavirus – on economic activity, unemployment, interest rates, house prices, shares, etc.

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The Lucky Country - three reasons why Australia may come through this period of global misery better than most countries

Back in January when the bushfires were raging, I feared Australia’s luck had ran out. But right now, I thank god I live in The Lucky Country!

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Capital Edition Issue 08

THE INSIDE WORKINGS OF AN INVESTING RULEBOOK.

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Why super and growth assets like shares have to be seen as long-term investments

This is an update of a note I wrote last November, but after the recent plunge in shares and the associated 10% or so loss in balanced growth superannuation funds through the March quarter, it’s particularly relevant now.

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Light at the end of the coronavirus tunnel – what does it mean for investors?

After a strong rally, in the short-term shares are vulnerable to bleak economic and earnings news.

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Magic money tree – QE & money printing and their part in the coronavirus economic rescue

Central bank support to ensure the flow of money and credit through economies is an essential part of the global and Australian coronavirus economic rescue

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Capital Edition Issue 07

MARKETS IN THE AGE OF (MIS) INFORMATION

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What signposts can we watch to be confident shares have bottomed?

While shares have rallied 15-20% from their March low and may have started a bottoming process

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The coronavirus pandemic and the economy – a Q&A from an investment perspective

Significant government support is essential to enable parts of the economy to successfully hibernate

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Is coronavirus driving a recession, depression or an economic hit like no other? What does it mean for the bear market in shares?

Global share markets have fallen into a bear market, but whether this turns out to be long or short depends on how long the hit to the economy from coronavirus lasts.

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The threat to Australian house prices from Coronavirus

The Australian housing market is at risk from the coronavirus recession Australia has now entered. A relatively short recession that sees unemployment rise to around 7.5% would likely only set prices back around 5% or so after which prices would bounce back.

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Five charts on investing to keep in mind in rough times like these

Successful investing can be really difficult in times like the present with immense uncertainty around the impact of coronavirus on the outlook.

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The increasing economic threat from coronavirus - what to watch for and what should investors do?

The rout in financial markets has continued, on the back of coronavirus, made worse by a flow on to oil markets.

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Capital edition issue 6

How the next generation is investing?

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The plunge in shares – seven things investors need to keep in mind

The plunge in share markets over the last week has generated much coverage and consternation.

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The increasing spread of Coronavirus – updated economic and investment market implications

While reported new coronavirus cases in China have slowed, the pickup in cases outside China has led to a renewed sharp fall in share markets and bond yields.

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Oliver's Insights - Three reasons why low inflation is good for shares and property

Shares are vulnerable to a short-term correction - Key things to watch out for are recession and much higher inflation.

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From bushfires to coronavirus - five ways to turn down the noise around investing

From bushfires to coronavirus - five ways to turn down the noise around investing

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Olivers Insights -The China Coronavirus outbreak – economic and investment market implications

The China coronavirus outbreak has led to concerns of a global pandemic triggering an economic downturn. Our base case is that the outbreak will be contained allowing share markets and bond yields to rebound. However, uncertainty is high given that the coronavirus is more contagious than SARS albeit with lower mortality. Key to watch for is a peak in new cases and contained transmission in developed countries.

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Five charts to watch regarding the global economy and markets this year

Shares are at risk of a short-term correction or consolidation after a strong run over the last year and with sentiment now very bullish. However, this year should still see good returns for investors as global growth edges up and interest rates remain low. > Five key global charts to watch are: global business conditions PMIs; global inflation; the US yield curve; the US dollar; and global trade growth. > So far so good, with PMIs improving a bit, inflation remaining low, the yield curve steepening, the $US showing signs of topping and the US/China trade truce auguring well for some pick up in world trade growth.

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Bushfires and the Australian economy

The Australian bushfire season that began in September has been horrific with more than 7 million hectares of bush destroyed, more than 25 deaths, significant loss of livestock, estimates of more than a billion wildlife animals killed and more than 1800 homes destroyed. More than 200 fires are still burning. Following the intensification of the bushfires over the Christmas/New Year period attention has now turned to the impact on the economy. This note looks at the key impacts.

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Learn about refinancing your home loan and how it can save you money

Even if you secured a competitive package when you first took out your home loan, it’s worth reviewing each year1 to ensure the interest rates, fees and features continue to meet your needs. By refinancing you may be able to pay off your home loan sooner.

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Capital Edition - Strength in unity

In this month’s issue we discuss how: James Maydew believes that having culture and strategy on the same blueprint is an absolute imperative climate change is impacting the real estate sector, and how leaders and businesses are standing up to the task of tackling it Julie-Anne Mizzi uses her innate passion for investing in infrastructure for those who need it, and the familiar airport retail experience is set for a makeover.

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Oliver's insights - Review of 2019, outlook for 2020 - the beat goes on

2019 saw growth slow, recession fears increase and the US trade wars ramp up, but solid investment returns as monetary policy eased, bond yields fell and demand for unlisted assets remained strong. 2020 is likely to see global growth pick up with monetary policy remaining easy. Expect the RBA to cut the cash rate to 0.25% and to undertake quantitative easing. Against this backdrop, share markets are likely to see reasonable but more constrained & volatile returns, and bond yields are likely to back up resulting in good but more modest returns from a diversified mix of assets. The main things to keep an eye on are: the trade wars; the US election; global growth; Chinese growth; and fiscal versus monetary stimulus in Australia.

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